Technology development journeys of Simba, Hare, and Tortoise 

When I was a kid, circa 1965, a nuclear power plant was commissioned close to my hometown, Dahanu, about 120 km north of Mumbai. Front pages of newspapers were filled with stories about the power plant and the benefits of nuclear energy. My dad excitedly told me that now we would have abundant power and that the electricity would cost us just 3 paise per unit, an unbelievably low cost. After decades, that town still experiences power cuts. The dream of abundant power from nuclear energy was a hype. Such hypes are always witnessed when new technology is being introduced.

I also recall other similar stories from my childhood. A new aluminum alloy, marketed under the trade name Hindalium, was introduced for utensils, cookware, and pressure cookers. It was promoted as a replacement for stainless steel, claiming to have equivalent mechanical and corrosion resistance properties while being lighter and cheaper than stainless steel. Today, we have more stainless steel utensils at home than Hindalium.

There were other innovations that captured our imagination during those years. I recall the buzz around plastic for daily use. This game-changer was marketed as the ultimate replacement for every natural material like wood. From now on, we will have everything made of plastic. Plastics are used in many products today, but we still have wooden furniture at home.

The development of technology over time can be effectively illustrated through the Gartner Hype Cycle (https://www.gartner.com/en/research/methodologies/gartner-hype-cycle.) The development process begins with innovation, generating significant interest and excitement (hype.) However, when the innovation fails to meet expectations, we enter a phase of disillusionment. Despite this, some individuals persist in their efforts, eventually leading to a breakthrough that brings us to a stage of enlightenment. From that point onward, we enter a period of growth and productivity.

I call this the Simba cycle. In the Disney movie The Lion King, Simba discovers an exciting place and feels thrilled about it. However, he later becomes disillusioned by the events in his life. After many years, Nala, his childhood friend, helps him see things differently. Ultimately, Simba takes his rightful place as the King of the Pride Lands. As the spread and impact of different technologies vary, the curves rise to different levels. In the figure, three curves are illustrated as Simba-1 (eg, for plastic), Simba-2 (eg, for Hindalium), and Simba-3 ( eg, for Nuclear energy).

I remember another hype circa 1990 on high-temperature superconductors. It promised power cables transporting gigawatts of electricity without loss and magnetically levitated trains. Today, we don't see much of it. In contrast, the story of the microwave oven is different. It quietly made its way into our homes and transformed the way we cook and live. Microwave technology is a silent achiever, much like the tortoise in the Tortoise and the Hare story. Meanwhile, high-temperature superconductor technology seems to lie buried in an innovation graveyard, akin to the hare. In recent years, we have seen Google Glass becoming Hare and Solar panels becoming tortoise. The internet followed the Simba-1 curve.

The question I wish to ask is which curve Low-carbon Hydrogen would follow. I believe the current electrolyzer technology would be buried in the innovation graveyard. This is a sweeping statement going against current trends. Why do I say so? Because, thermodynamically, it's illogical to spend 39.4 kWh to produce 1 kg of hydrogen when its energy value is merely 33.3 kWh. In sharp contrast, methane pyrolysis requires only 5.2 kWh to generate 1 kg of hydrogen. I believe methane pyrolysis will grow beyond the hype and follow one of the Simba curves.

At Hyurja (https://www.hyurja.com/), we are developing the methane pyrolysis technology to make low-carbon hydrogen a reality.